Bitcoin Tightening Up for a Bigger Move (July 12 Forecast)

2 min readJul 10, 2021


Bitcoin rallied a bit on Friday, rising to about $34K as we head into the weekend. For the past 2 months rallies such as today have been short-lived and provided more opportunities to fade the rally than anything. In the short-term, it looks like Bitcoin may continue to fade lower.

(July 8, 2021 8:30PM EST)


If BTC breaks below the $30K level, then it’s likely that we see a $10K move based upon the consolidation pattern, making $20K the next target. If we break below $20K, then it’s likely that BTC goes much lower: $10K or maybe even the 2020 low around $5K. $20K is important as it’s the previous high of the 2017 bull market.

If BTC breaks above $40K, then we should see a rally to $50K as that would be a bullish divergence above the 200 and 50 Day EMAs. The order books show little selling resistance between $40K and $50K.

All else equal, although it looks like BTC is consolidating, it’s important to notice that BTC hasn’t been able to recapture the 200 Day EMA yet, giving credence to the short-term downtrend on the daily chart.

Support: $30K, then the 2017 ATH around $20K.

Resistance: $35K, then the 50 Day EMA just under $40K.

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