Bitcoin Hinting at $20K Correction Bottom? (Weekly Forecast)
Bitcoin dropped again to start off the week, slipping briefly under the $30K level to ~$28,700 before the buyers stepped in, bouncing BTC back to ~$33K near the end of the Tuesday session. While the lower low is not bullish, the response was, showing a nice reactive ~$4K bounce to finish the day almost flat and a weekly candle that, so far, looks very supportive.
(June 22, 2021 8:30PM EST)
Short-Term
Bitcoin fell and recovered early in the week, giving us a bullish hammer on the weekly chart. If this was indeed this microcycle’s low, then we could see sideways trading between $30K — $40K going forward while we build momentum back up. This is my primary view as there is a ton of buying pressure at and underneath $30K to further support strong fundamentals and recent price action. There has been a lot of intraday “noise” in the media (China FUD, Elon tweets, clean energy FUD, etc.) that has caused a lot of crypto noob selling, but long-term holders are not only HODLing but accumulating more than ever. Fear is high which typically indicates a bottom is near. This aligns with a 61.8% fib retracement of the September 2020-May 2021 rally, resembling that of the 2013 Bitcoin cycle when we had an early, mid-year “top” which later proved to be “the first selloff.”
If there’s more pain to come, then we could see a drop down to the 78.6% fib retracement of the Sept ’20 — May ’21 rally around $21,637 which would assuredly get bought up as it hovers just above the 2017 highs which should provide massive support. This is not my primary view but it is possible given the current price action, and it’s common for assets to retrace to former resistances to test support. If this happens, I expect a massive capitulation candle that results in a violent bounce back up to $30K or higher which should kickstart the next leg of the bull market rally.
BTC Dominance
Bitcoin Dominance continues to recover, rallying to nearly 48% amidst another crypto selloff as alts continue to suffer the brunt of the pain. Capital continues to rotate out of needlessly inflated alts back into the “conservative” mega-cap Bitcoin, which could help push Bitcoin dominance back up to 50 or even 60% by the time this short-term selloff and consolidation is over.
Long-Term
BTFD. Fundamentals have not changed. Daily and even weekly charts will show relatively large corrections; this is standard bull market behavior. Now that another altseason has been spectacularly squashed, this sets us up for another Bitcoin leg up to new highs. By nearly every measure, we are nowhere near a top; in fact, we are maybe halfway through this bull market. What do you do during bull markets? Buy. The. Dip.
Support: $30K, then at $20K.
Resistance: $35K, $40K, then $45K.
Originally published at https://www.publish0x.com.
