Bitcoin Daily Price Forecast (11/30/20) — More Selling Next Week?
Bitcoin pulled back a bit on Friday, drifting a little bit lower throughout the day and settling slightly lower, heading into the weekend just above the $17,000 level. This is a bearish end to the week as Bitcoin has dropped about 15% since Wednesday, which points to continued selling next week as Bitcoin looks lower for an area of support.
Outlook: Bitcoin didn’t do a ton on Friday as markets were thin due to the long US holiday weekend, drifting a bit lower as Bitcoin settled on a weak note around $17,000 heading into the weekend. Usually, weakness into the weekend implies further weakness early next week, and these two most recent candles don’t inspire much confidence that the market has found a bottom or is forming a bottoming pattern. This looks like rallies were faded today after a big selloff yesterday, and people are probably trying to take profits or raise stop-losses to protect gains should Bitcoin fall another 10–20% next week.
This selloff also comes as gold has sold off in traditional markets, facing weakness lately and even dropping below the $1,800/oz level recently, currently hovering just above. Bitcoin is viewed by some as a leading indicator and surfeit asset for traditional markets, meaning that a possible and highly projected market selloff in equities could be around the corner as well. This coincides with a seasonal liquidity drought and a plethora of bearish socio- and political-economic catalysts that could hinder markets.
That being said, I’m not a seller of Bitcoin, but I am a buyer on dips and actively looking for value underneath as Bitcoin pullbacks for a medium-longer term timeframe. I think this move is proportionate and healthy, and that a pullback will put in a higher low as it has already obviously put in a higher high, and this will support a subsequent move up to target the $20,000 level and above soon thereafter, probably in Q1 2021. For now, I’m a buyer on dips, looking for value after the sellers are exhausted at slightly lower levels, at which point I’ll be happy to add to my stack for an extraordinarily bullish 2021–2023.
Support: Look for a first level of support around the 38.2% fib retracement at ~$15,822, near the $16,000 level. If that doesn’t hold, I think a stronger confluence of support resides somewhere between the 50% and 61.8% fib levels, between $14,679 and $13,536, the same range that also contains the 50 Day EMA at $14,546. I think this range is extremely likely to provide support and an ultimate conclusion to this correction, which would mark a pretty clean 30% retracement.
Resistance: $20,000 remains firm resistance, which makes sense as it’s the previous ATH. When BTC breaks above $20,000, which, given this selloff, probably doesn’t occur until Q1 2021, I’ll be looking for a quick run up to $25,000 and then $30,000. In the mean time, Bitcoin will have to fair with slightly lower levels now as it sees a short-term pullback away from $20K.
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