Now that we have more data and a potentially more accurate wave count, let’s revisit an old market cycle price target forecast I made earlier this year/late 2020.

(August 3, 2021 8:30PM EST)

Long-Term

I still hold that we have not yet seen a market cycle top. Why? Several reasons:

Fundamentals

On-chain…


Bitcoin rallied to kick off the week to about $42K before pulling back, closing the weekly candle with a bit of a shooting star. This is a bearish candle but the jury is very much still out. …


Ethereum rallied again this week, building off of last week’s explosive move up and forming another higher high on the weekly chart to print ETH’s highest price since mid-June. …


Bitcoin fell a hair on Thursday, trading right around the $40K level before closing the daily candle just underneath, giving us a quiet sideways Thursday candle. …


Bitcoin rallied to kick off the week, exploding above the $40K level before pulling back a bit, ending Tuesday’s session around $39K. This is bullish as Bitcoin is now trading back above the 50 Week EMA, giving Bitcoin a technical bullish divergence and a decisive end to the short-term downtrend.


Bitcoin rallied on Wednesday, recovering back above the $30K level and nearly reaching $33K before pulling back a bit, closing the daily around $32K. This is bullish short-term as it validated support at $30K, erased the previous 2 days’ losses, and gives us a short-term higher high. …


Ethereum sold off last week, breaking below the $2,000 level and closing the weekly candle around $1,800. This week hasn’t been much better as ETH continues to follow Bitcoin’s lead and drift lower. …


Bitcoin fell a bit last week, getting rejected by the 50 Week EMA and pulling back to around $31K over the weekend. Bitcoin is off to a weak start to this week as it drifts ever-lower to just above $30K. …


Bitcoin fell on Thursday, giving back all of yesterday’s gains and then some, closing the daily candle below $32K. This is an ominous looking chart and Bitcoin looks ready to fall off a cliff if it breaks below $30K.

(July 15, 2021 8:30PM EST)

Short-Term

All eyes are on $30K as…


Bitcoin rallied a bit on Wednesday, rising to about the $33K level before the closing the daily candle near the highs. This is a bullish hammer, albeit a small one, so I’m far from convinced that the short-term trend has switched to bullish.

(July 14, 2021 8:30PM EST)

Short-Term

Down 2…

MoneyRedPill

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